Bitcoin (BTC) may be headed for a sharp rally toward $116,000 before the end of July, according to crypto market strategist Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
In a recent analysis, Thielen highlighted three macroeconomic forces that are aligning to support Bitcoin’s next potential breakout.
Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance Amid ETF Inflows
“Bitcoin is testing the top of its consolidation range, just as a perfect storm of macro catalysts begins to build,” said Thielen.
He pointed to strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs as a critical driver of recent price strength.
Despite recording its first net outflow in 15 days this Wednesday, ETF demand continues to outpace price action—an indication, according to Thielen, that institutional buyers are motivated more by broader economic themes than short-term speculation.
Political Pressure on Fed Chair May Trigger Shift
Another major factor is political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Thielen suggests that former President Donald Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell could influence monetary policy if Trump returns to power.
“This rhetoric may have been a catalyst for the third wave of Bitcoin ETF accumulation,” Thielen noted.
He added that a potential new Fed chair under Trump may favor lower interest rates, drawing a parallel to Arthur Burns’ tenure in the 1970s when political interference contributed to rising inflation.
Shrinking Exchange Supply Suggests Mounting Pressure
The third bullish signal identified by Thielen is the continued drop in Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges.
“Exchange balances have now declined for 98 consecutive days,” he said.
“This marks the longest drawdown since 2020, which preceded the last major bull market breakout.”
He added that historically, such prolonged outflows signal increasing scarcity, which can lead to upward price pressure.
If this pattern persists, Bitcoin could be preparing for another significant price surge.
Potential for New All-Time High
At the time of Thielen’s comments, Bitcoin was priced around $108,990.
A rise to $116,000 would represent a 6.45% increase from that level and would also exceed the current all-time high of $111,970 by roughly 3.6%.
The crypto asset has risen 0.69% over the past seven days, reflecting a steady upward trend that may accelerate if these macroeconomic signals continue to align.
A Perfect Storm or Premature Optimism?
While many traders remain cautious, Thielen’s analysis presents a compelling case for bullish continuation in the near term.
ETF inflows, political influence on monetary policy, and declining exchange reserves create a scenario that historically precedes Bitcoin rallies.
If these forces remain in play, the Bitcoin market may soon see another breakout—potentially surpassing previous records before the month’s end.